What The Weekly Outlook covers
UK wholesale market review
A clear summary of the week's key price movements in gas and power — what drove them and what they mean for procurement.
Forward curve analysis
Where the forward curve is trading relative to EPI's fair value estimates, and what that implies for contract timing decisions.
Risk factors to watch
The key supply, demand, weather, and geopolitical factors that could move prices in the coming weeks.
Procurement strategy commentary
Independent commentary on procurement strategy — when to buy, when to wait, and how to think about risk in the current market.
Sunday 11 October 2026
Issue 17Is the forward market underestimating Europe's path through winter?
The forward curve has stabilised — but EPI's analysis suggests it may be underestimating the structural pressures that will shape Europe's gas balance through the winter. This edition examines the gap between what the market is pricing and what the physical evidence is pointing to.
With storage below the five-year average and the injection season closing, the forward market's apparent calm deserves scrutiny. This edition sets out the key variables — LNG availability, Norwegian flow reliability, demand response capacity and the pace of storage draw — and assesses whether the current curve adequately reflects the distribution of outcomes buyers face.
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Recent issues
What would put Europe's gas storage rebuild back on track?
European storage has fallen further behind the five-year average. This edition examines what a credible recovery path would require — the combination of LNG arrivals, Norwegian flow normalisation and demand response that would need to materialise — and whether the forward market is pricing that path or something more optimistic.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationThe remaining storage refill window is becoming a market risk in its own right
With the injection season drawing to a close, the shrinking window for further storage refill is itself becoming a source of market risk. This edition examines how much the remaining window matters, what the physical balance needs to deliver, and how buyers should be thinking about the risk as winter approaches.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationThe Weekly Energy Market Watch — Issue 14
The latest edition of The Weekly Outlook covers the key developments in UK and European wholesale gas and power markets, with analysis of the forward curve, storage trajectory and procurement strategy implications for energy buyers and brokers.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationHow did Europe reach the point of material storage deficit — and what happens next?
European gas storage has moved into a material deficit versus the five-year average. This edition examines how that position was reached, what the physical and forward-market signals are now saying, and what it means for buyers navigating the autumn and winter procurement window.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationIs the latest gas rally being confirmed beyond headline risk?
Gas prices have moved sharply higher. This edition examines the evidence behind the September rally — what the physical balance, storage trajectory and forward curve are saying, how to distinguish a confirmed directional move from noise, and what that means for procurement decisions right now.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationWhat does the storage gap mean for forward buyers?
European storage has moved into deficit versus the five-year average. This edition examines what that gap means in practical terms for buyers with forward contracts to place — whether the deficit is large enough to change the procurement calculus, and what signals would confirm a sustained directional shift.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationWhat would turn the geopolitical premium into a lasting price floor?
NBP Front Month has held elevated levels through August. This edition revisits the question of whether the geopolitical premium is becoming structurally embedded — what physical and forward-market evidence would confirm a durable repricing, and what that means for buyers still weighing their options.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationWhat would confirm that this rally is more than a temporary risk premium?
NBP Front Month finished at 151.23 p/th, 11.24% higher on the week. After another material weekly rise, the question is whether the premium is being reinforced strongly enough to become a more persistent price floor — and what evidence would confirm a structural reset rather than a temporary premium.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationEurope's gas storage is rising — but is the refill trajectory strong enough?
NBP Front Month finished at 134.20 p/th. EU storage has been building, but the pace of refill relative to the five-year average, the remaining injection window, and competing demand signals from LNG and Norwegian flows mean the picture is more nuanced than the headline storage percentage suggests.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationIs storage improving quickly enough to change the winter-risk view?
NBP Front Month finished at 144.28 p/th, 6.38% lower on the week. The answer is: not yet — but the focus on that very topic is becoming more important by the day. A weekly decline can improve near-term value without removing the storage, LNG, Norwegian-flow and geopolitical risks that could rebuild the premium.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationIs geopolitical risk becoming a new price floor for European gas?
NBP Front Month finished at 154 p/th. The answer is: not yet — but the burden of proof is shifting. After two consecutive weeks of sharp gains, the question is no longer whether a geopolitical premium exists. It is whether the physical market is beginning to validate it.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationWhat would turn this geopolitical premium into a lasting price floor?
NBP Front Month finished at 138.75 p/th, up 5.13% on the week. After a second sharp weekly rise, the question is no longer whether a premium exists — it is whether that premium is being reinforced strongly enough to become a more persistent price floor. That distinction matters for buyers.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationHas the market rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium faster than the fundamentals justify?
NBP Front Month finished at 117 p/th as markets reassessed Gulf shipping and LNG supply risk. We examine whether the speed of the premium rebuild is supported by the physical fundamentals — or whether buyers are being asked to price in risk that has not yet materialised.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationHas the prompt buying window narrowed?
With forward curves shifting and near-term supply signals tightening, we examine whether the window for prompt procurement decisions has become materially narrower — and what that means for buyers still sitting on the fence.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationHas the market moved from the Strait of Hormuz too quickly?
Geopolitical risk premiums faded faster than many expected following the Hormuz headlines. We assess whether the market has priced out the risk too soon — and the implications for procurement strategy.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstrationThis week's big question: has the market become too comfortable, too quickly?
In the first issue of The Weekly Outlook, we examine whether the market's apparent calm is justified by the fundamentals — or whether buyers are being lulled into complacency at a moment when the risk picture remains materially uncertain.
This is the consumer-reader view. If you buy, sell or advise on energy, the same daily model runs behind EPI Studio, with forward curves, Fair Value, driver attribution and procurement timing.
Book a 15-minute EPI Studio demonstration