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Intelligence built for energy professionals

EPI clients receive a suite of analytical tools, daily market intelligence and bespoke reporting — all grounded in transparent methodology and delivered through a secure client area.

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Sample intelligence

Illustrative examples of the intelligence EPI clients receive. Values are delayed, anonymised or representative.

EPI Fair Value™ — NBP front monthDiscount

Market price

97.4 p/th

EPI Fair Value

88.1 p/th

Market trading at a +10.6% premium to fundamental fair value. Signals caution for near-term buyers.

About EPI Fair Value

Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

Technical direction — NBP seasonal

TrendBearish

MomentumWeakening

Key support82.0 p/th

Key resistance101.5 p/th

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Illustrative — representative values only

Near-term UK baseload — day-ahead

£84.20

/MWh forecast

Low

£79.50

Central

£84.20

High

£91.80

Confidence: 72% — wind generation within normal range; demand slightly elevated.

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Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

Forecast accuracy — 30-day rolling

74%

Directional accuracy

74% of day-ahead directional calls correct over the trailing 30 days.

Mean error

±£3.40

Calls made

Our methodology

Illustrative — representative of live model performance

Composite market-risk score

6.2

Elevated

Score of 6.2 / 10. Geopolitical and storage risk factors are the primary drivers.

Supply risk65%

Demand risk38%

Geopolitical risk72%

Storage risk55%

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Illustrative — representative composite score

European gas storage — seasonal risk

71.4%

full — below 5yr avg

Current fill71.4%

0%5yr avg: 79%100%

Storage deficit of 7.6 percentage points vs seasonal average. Elevated upside price risk into winter.

Live market data

Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

Procurement signal — anonymised example

Buy signal — moderate confidenceQ2 2025

Client A (industrial buyer, 8 GWh/yr) entered a 12-month fixed contract at 94.2 p/th following an EPI buy signal. Market subsequently moved to 108 p/th within 6 weeks.

Entry price

94.2 p/th

6-wk market

108.0 p/th

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Anonymised and illustrative — not a guarantee of future results

Ofgem price-cap forecastEPI model

Q3 2025£1,568Confirmed

Q4 2025£1,710Forecast

Q1 2026£1,820Indicative

Q2 2026£1,640Indicative

Public forecast summary

Illustrative — see public tool for current EPI forecast

Technical analysis

Market structure at a glance

EPI technical analysis tracks price structure, momentum and key levels across gas and power contracts. The example below uses illustrative, delayed values.

View full technical-analysis suite

Broad market stance

Bearish

Confidence

68%

TrendBearish

MomentumWeakening

StructureLower highs / lower lows

VolatilityModerate

The overall structure favours sellers. Price is printing lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. Momentum is fading but not yet oversold.

Illustrative — representative values only

NBP front month — 90-day price path

97.4p/th▼ 8.3% (90d)

Support

82.0 p/th

Current

97.4 p/th

Resistance

106.0 p/th

Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

Key concepts — plain English

⚡

Momentum

How much energy is behind the current price move. Strong momentum means the trend is likely to continue; fading momentum is an early warning that a reversal may be near.

🟢

Support

A price level where buyers have historically stepped in and halted a decline. Think of it as a floor — the market has bounced here before.

🔴

Resistance

A price level where sellers have historically emerged and capped a rally. Think of it as a ceiling — the market has struggled to break above this level.

🎯

Target

The price level EPI expects the market to reach if the current move continues. Targets are derived from measured moves, prior structure and momentum projections.

Example target progression — NBP seasonal

When a key support level breaks, EPI projects a sequence of downside targets based on measured moves and prior structure. This is an anonymised example.

Entry signal106.5 p/th

Break below prior supportTriggered

Target 197.0 p/th

Measured move — 61.8% projectionReached

Target 288.5 p/th

Prior swing low / structureActive

Target 382.0 p/th

Full measured move projectionPending

Target 2 (88.5 p/th) is the current active objective. A daily close below 88.5 would open Target 3 at 82.0 p/th.

Anonymised and illustrative — not a guarantee of future price action

View the full technical-analysis suite with client access.

Full contract selector, historical signal feed, Fibonacci levels, Ichimoku structure and probability paths — available to EPI clients.

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Near-term power forecast

GB baseload — day-ahead and intraday

EPI publishes a rolling near-term GB power forecast covering day-ahead through to 14-day horizon. Generators, flexible assets and large consumers use it to time dispatch decisions and procurement windows.

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GB baseload — day-ahead

£84.20/MWh

Confidence

72%

Delivery date

Tuesday 25 Aug 2026

Published

18:30 day prior

P10 low

£76.50

Central

£84.20

P90 high

£93.80

Key drivers

Wind generation

8.4 GWBelow seasonal avg

Solar output

3.1 GWModerate

Demand

34.2 GWSlightly elevated

Interconnector

Import2.8 GW net

Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

Hourly forecast — example settlement periods

The full feed covers all 48 half-hour settlement periods. This shows a representative sample of six periods across the day.

SP 01 00:00£68.4/MWh

SP 13 06:00£74.2/MWh

SP 25 12:00£84.2/MWh

SP 31 15:00£91.6/MWh

SP 37 18:00£97.8/MWh

SP 43 21:00£79.5/MWh

Evening peak — SP 37 (18:00)

Low wind and elevated demand combine to push the 18:00 period to the day's forecast high of £97.8/MWh. Flexible assets should plan for peak dispatch in this window.

Illustrative — full 48-period feed available with client access

Forecast accuracy — 30-day rolling

EPI tracks every published forecast against outturn. The figures below are a representative sample of model performance.

Day-ahead MAE

£3.40

mean abs. error

Directional

74%

correct direction

Accuracy by horizon

Day-ahead (D+1)

MAE £3.4074%

Two-day (D+2)

MAE £5.1069%

Three-day (D+3)

MAE £7.8063%

7-day (D+7)

MAE £12.4058%

Representative of live model performance — not a guarantee of future accuracy

Who uses this forecast

Generators and flexible assets

A near-term price forecast is most valuable when it informs a decision that can still be acted on. EPI publishes the forecast the evening before delivery so operators have time to adjust dispatch plans, hedge intraday exposure or hold back flexible capacity for the peak window.

Dispatch optimisation

Identify the highest-value settlement periods and plan flexible generation or battery dispatch around the forecast peak.

Intraday hedging

Use the half-hourly profile to decide whether to lock in day-ahead prices or hold exposure for intraday markets.

Procurement timing

Large consumers and industrial buyers use the 7-day horizon to time fixed-price purchases around forecast price troughs.

Risk flagging

When confidence falls below threshold, the forecast flags the reason — wind uncertainty, demand surprise or interconnector constraint — so operators can widen their contingency.

View the full near-term power forecast with client access.

Full 48-period hourly feed, 14-day forward horizon, forecast archive, calibration values and P10–P90 probability paths — available to EPI clients.

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Procurement intelligence

Entry signals and forward layering

EPI procurement intelligence combines fair-value analysis, technical structure and forward-curve shape to identify when market prices represent genuine value — and when they do not.

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Market price vs EPI Fair Value™

EPI Fair Value™ is a model-derived estimate of where the market should be trading given current fundamentals. When market price diverges materially from fair value, it generates a procurement signal.

Market price

£97.40

NBP Cal-27 · p/th

EPI Fair Value™

£88.60

model estimate

Divergence from fair value+9.9% above

UndervaluedFair valueOvervalued

Signal: hold — market trading above fair value

At current levels the market is pricing in a risk premium not supported by the fundamental model. EPI signals a hold on new forward purchases until the gap narrows.

Illustrative — values anonymised and delayed

Prompt vs forward — example decision

One of the most common procurement decisions is whether to buy prompt or lock in a forward price. EPI frames this as a structured comparison, not a guess.

Prompt (day-ahead)

£84.20/MWh

Forecast central case for tomorrow

Favoured

Near-term forecast is below the forward curve. Buying prompt captures the discount while the fundamental picture remains soft.

Cal-27 forward

£97.40/MWh

Current exchange mid-price

Hold

Forward is trading 9.9% above EPI Fair Value™. Locking in at this level would crystallise an above-fair-value cost.

Illustrative — not a recommendation; client-specific positions not shown

What is selective forward layering?

Buy in tranches, only when value is present

Rather than fixing 100% of a forward requirement at a single point in time — which concentrates all price risk on one decision — selective layering splits the purchase into tranches and only executes each tranche when the market offers genuine value relative to EPI Fair Value™.

How it works

Set a target volume and horizon

Define how much forward cover is needed and over what period — e.g. 60% of Cal-27 requirement by end of Q3.

Monitor fair-value divergence

EPI tracks the gap between market price and Fair Value™ daily. When the market dips to or below fair value, a buy signal is issued.

Execute a tranche on signal

A defined tranche — typically 10–20% of the total requirement — is purchased at the signal price, locking in value without over-committing.

Repeat until target cover is reached

The process repeats across the horizon. The blended entry price reflects multiple favourable windows rather than a single arbitrary date.

The outcome

Clients who follow a layered strategy typically achieve a blended entry price closer to fair value than those who fix at a single point. The approach also reduces the psychological pressure of trying to time the market perfectly.

EPI procurement opportunity map — illustrative sample

Sample report — illustrative

Procurement opportunity map

Forward curve vs fair value — visual overlay

The procurement opportunity map plots the forward curve alongside EPI Fair Value™ across all tenors. Shaded regions indicate where the market is trading above or below fair value, making entry windows immediately visible.

Forward curve vs Fair Value™ overlay

Divergence magnitude by tenor

Signal status per contract

Recommended layering windows

Illustrative sample — live client reports contain current data and are not publicly available

See how EPI procurement intelligence applies to your forward book.

Live entry signals, client-specific layering schedules, collateral modelling and private report archives are available to EPI clients only.

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Market outlook and risk

Composite risk band and trend overlay

EPI's market risk score aggregates supply, demand, geopolitical and technical signals into a single composite band. It is an analytical overlay that describes the current risk environment — it is not a price forecast.

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Composite risk band

Elevated

Score 62 / 100 — updated weekly

Low

0–25

Moderate

26–50

Elevated

51–75

High

76–100

Current trend

Risk has edged higher over the past two weeks, driven by tightening European storage injections and renewed uncertainty around Hormuz shipping lanes. The composite score has risen from 54 to 62 since the previous weekly update.

Illustrative — delayed and anonymised. This score is an analytical overlay, not a price forecast.

Leading risk drivers

The two drivers currently contributing most to the composite score. Full driver attribution — across supply, demand, geopolitical and technical sub-scores — is available with client access.

01European storage injection shortfall

+11 ptsSupply

Seasonal injection rates are running 8% below the five-year average. If the shortfall persists into September, winter storage cover will enter the heating season below the 90% threshold that historically anchors prompt prices.

02Hormuz shipping uncertainty

+7 ptsGeopolitical

Elevated transit risk on the Strait of Hormuz is adding a geopolitical premium to LNG spot prices. EPI monitors shipping data daily; any escalation would push this driver to the top position.

Illustrative — full driver attribution not shown publicly

What the risk score is — and is not

An analytical overlay, not a price forecast

What it measures

The composite risk score measures the breadth and intensity of risk factors currently active in the market — storage levels, supply disruption probability, demand volatility, geopolitical tension and technical structure.

What it does not do

The score does not predict where prices will go. A high risk score means the environment is uncertain and volatile; it does not mean prices will rise. Prices can fall sharply in a high-risk environment if a risk factor resolves.

How clients use it

Clients use the risk band to calibrate their hedging posture — widening contingency buffers when the score is elevated, and tightening them when risk normalises. It is one input among several, not a standalone trading signal.

Full driver attribution, sub-score history and the weekly risk narrative are available to EPI clients. Create client account →

Ofgem price-cap intelligence

Quarterly cap forecast — unit-rate ranges

EPI publishes a quarterly Ofgem price-cap forecast covering the active period and the next two quarters. The forecast is built from wholesale forward curves, network charge projections and Ofgem's published methodology.

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High-level forecast

£1,720/yr typical

Dual-fuel, typical household

Confidence

High

Active forecast period

Q3 2026 — Jul to Sep

Next review

Ofgem — Oct 2026

Unit-rate ranges — Q3 2026

Electricity — unit rate/kWh

Low

24.5p

Central

25.0p

High

25.8p

Electricity — standing charge/day

Low

53p

Central

55p

High

58p

Gas — unit rate/kWh

Low

6.2p

Central

6.4p

High

6.7p

Gas — standing charge/day

Low

29p

Central

31p

High

33p

Illustrative — values delayed and anonymised

How the forecast is built

Wholesale curves, network charges and Ofgem methodology

Ofgem sets the price cap quarterly using a formula that combines wholesale energy costs, network charges, operating costs and a supplier margin allowance. EPI models each component separately and aggregates them to produce a unit-rate forecast.

Wholesale energy cost

The largest component. EPI uses NBP and power forward curves to project the wholesale cost allowance Ofgem will set for the quarter.

Network and policy charges

Transmission, distribution and policy levies (e.g. RO, FiT, CfD) are modelled from published regulatory determinations and updated when new data is released.

Operating cost and margin

Ofgem publishes allowed operating cost and margin assumptions. EPI tracks these and adjusts the model when Ofgem consults on methodology changes.

Scenario range

Low, central and high scenarios reflect P10–P90 uncertainty in the wholesale component. Network and policy charges are treated as near-certain within the quarter.

Private calculation bridges, regional outputs, full quarterly histories and downloadable model files are available to EPI clients only. Request detailed access →

Confidence by quarter

Confidence is highest for the active quarter — where Ofgem has already set most components — and declines as the wholesale uncertainty window widens.

Q3 2026 (active)High

Cap already set; wholesale locked

Q4 2026Moderate

Wholesale window open; network near-certain

Q1 2027Low

Wide wholesale uncertainty; early estimate

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All EPI intelligence products are for analytical purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes financial or procurement advice. Access is subject to client agreement.