EPI Fair Value™ is a proprietary analytical assessment of where the market should be trading, given current physical fundamentals and market conditions. It is not a price forecast and does not predict future market levels.
The distinction matters: a fair value assessment tells you whether today's price is justified given observable supply, demand and risk conditions — a forecast attempts to tell you where the price will be tomorrow. EPI does the former, not the latter.
The output is a structured view of market value, expressed as a range and a central estimate, updated each trading day. It is designed to inform procurement decisions, not to replace professional judgement.
Valuations are reviewed each trading day using a structured combination of inputs: wholesale market prices, physical supply and demand fundamentals, storage data, LNG flow data, weather-adjusted demand modelling, Norwegian production data, carbon market signals and technical indicators.
No single input dominates. The weighting of each driver reflects current market conditions and is subject to ongoing review. Where inputs conflict, the assessment reflects the analyst's judgement of which signals are most reliable given the current market environment.
Assessments are produced after the market close each trading day. Delivery timing is configured around the client's reporting requirements.
The current analytical framework draws on eight primary input categories:
• Wholesale market prices (NBP, TTF) • EU and UK gas storage levels (AGSI, National Gas) • LNG terminal utilisation and vessel flows (AIS / Marine Traffic) • Norwegian pipeline production (Gassco) • Weather-adjusted demand modelling (HDD model) • Carbon market signals (EUA spot and forward) • Technical momentum indicators • Geopolitical supply risk assessment
Driver weightings are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect structural changes in the market. The current weighting framework was last reviewed in July 2026. Material changes are logged and communicated to subscribers.
EPI's analytical methodology is version-controlled and formally documented. When the methodology is updated — whether to incorporate new data sources, refine driver weightings or reflect structural changes in the market — the change is logged, dated and retained.
Subscribers are notified of material methodology changes before they take effect. This ensures that assessments remain consistent and that any evolution in approach is transparent and traceable.
EPI has no commercial relationship with energy suppliers, brokers or trading desks. Assessments are not influenced by any party with a commercial interest in the direction of the market.
EPI Fair Value™ assessments are analytical estimates based on information available at the time of publication. They do not constitute investment, financial, trading or procurement advice.
Market conditions can change rapidly and assessments may not reflect events occurring after publication. Users remain solely responsible for their own commercial decisions. EPI intelligence is intended to inform — not to replace — professional judgement.
Every EPI output is structured around a procurement question: given current market conditions and fair value, what does the data suggest about when and how to buy energy? The intelligence is designed for commercial decision-makers — not trading desks, not financial markets.
Analytical inputs — current framework
Input framework is version-controlled. Material changes are logged and communicated to subscribers. Last methodology review: July 2026.