Energy Price Intelligence
Market Intelligence

Daily Wholesale Energy Market Intelligence

Independent analysis of UK gas and electricity markets — published every morning before the trading day begins. No broker affiliations. No commercial conflicts. Just rigorous, data-driven insight.

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Our Intelligence Products

Three Products. One Analytical Framework.

Every EPI product is built on the same independent analytical foundation — the Strategic Valuation Curve and PWFV methodology.

Published 07:30 GMT

Daily Market Report

The morning briefing for energy professionals

A comprehensive daily briefing covering overnight price movements across UK gas and power markets, European gas storage levels, LNG cargo flows, weather and demand outlook, and the key fundamental drivers shaping the day ahead.

  • NBP and TTF gas price commentary
  • UK baseload and peak power price analysis
  • Storage and LNG flow data
  • Weather and demand outlook
  • Key market events and risk factors
Published Weekly

Strategic Valuation Curve

The independent forward curve benchmark

Our independently constructed forward curve for UK gas and power, updated every week. Built from market data, seasonal patterns, storage dynamics and fundamental analysis — not broker consensus or exchange settlement prices alone.

  • 12-month rolling forward curve
  • Seasonal and structural adjustments
  • Storage and supply/demand balance inputs
  • Comparison to exchange settlement
  • Downloadable data in CSV format
PWFV Methodology

Probability-Weighted Fair Value

A framework for procurement decisions under uncertainty

The PWFV methodology assigns probability weights to multiple price scenarios — bull, base and bear — and combines them into a single fair-value estimate. It gives procurement teams a principled basis for evaluating fixed vs flexible buying decisions.

  • Three-scenario price distribution
  • Probability-weighted fair value calculation
  • Fixed vs flexible decision framework
  • Sensitivity analysis outputs
  • Methodology documentation included
Sample Report

What's Inside the Daily Market Report

A structured, consistent format — published every morning at 07:30 GMT.

07:30

Overnight Price Summary

NBP Day-Ahead, UK Power Day-Ahead, TTF Front Month — closing levels, overnight moves, and opening direction.

07:35

Gas Market Commentary

UK system balance, storage injection/withdrawal rates, Norwegian and LNG supply, demand vs forecast.

07:40

Power Market Commentary

Wind and solar generation outlook, interconnector flows, nuclear availability, carbon and coal context.

07:45

European Context

TTF and NCG price action, EU storage levels, geopolitical risk factors, LNG cargo arrivals.

07:50

EPI View & Key Risks

Our independent assessment of the day's key price risks and the current PWFV fair value range.

EPI Daily Market Report

Thursday 9 July 2026 · 07:30 GMT

SAMPLE
NBP Day-Ahead
87.5p/th+1.2%
UK Power Day-Ahead
£91.20/MWh-0.6%
TTF Front Month
€34.20/MWh+0.4%

EPI View: Gas prices opened firmer overnight on tighter Norwegian supply and below-average storage injection rates. The PWFV fair value range for NBP Winter 26 remains 108–116p/th…

Full analysis continues in the subscriber edition — covering gas storage balance, LNG arrivals, power generation mix and the full PWFV scenario update…

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PWFV Methodology

The Probability-Weighted Fair Value Approach

Most energy market analysis presents a single price forecast. The PWFV methodology is different — it acknowledges that energy markets are inherently uncertain and builds that uncertainty into the analytical framework.

01

Define Three Scenarios

We construct a bull, base and bear price scenario for the period in question, each grounded in a coherent set of fundamental assumptions about supply, demand, storage and weather.

02

Assign Probabilities

Each scenario is assigned a probability weight based on our assessment of current market conditions, historical precedent and the distribution of plausible outcomes.

03

Calculate Fair Value

The three scenario prices are combined using their probability weights to produce a single Probability-Weighted Fair Value — the expected price given the full distribution of outcomes.

04

Apply to Procurement

The PWFV is compared to current market prices to assess whether fixed prices represent fair value, and to inform the timing and structure of flexible procurement decisions.

The PWFV is not a price forecast. It is a decision-support framework — designed to help procurement professionals buy energy with analytical rigour rather than intuition.

Subscription Plans

Access EPI Market Intelligence

Flexible subscription plans for individuals, teams and enterprises. All plans include the Daily Market Report.

Individual

Contact for pricing

For individual energy professionals — brokers, buyers, analysts and consultants.

  • Daily Market Report (email delivery)
  • Weekly Strategic Valuation Curve
  • PWFV methodology documentation
  • Email support
Most Popular

Team

Contact for pricing

For procurement teams, energy consultancies and TPI businesses with multiple users.

  • Everything in Individual
  • Up to 10 named users
  • Team briefing calls (monthly)
  • CSV data downloads
  • Priority email support

Enterprise

Bespoke pricing

For large organisations requiring custom data feeds, white-label content or bespoke research.

  • Everything in Team
  • Unlimited users
  • Custom data feeds and API access
  • White-label content options
  • Dedicated account management
  • Bespoke research projects

Start with a Free Sample Report

Request a sample Daily Market Report and see the quality of EPI analysis before committing to a subscription.

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